TEAM Zarate Tarrani Notes From the Field

Tools of the Trade. Since I've dragged a business-oriented discussion into this weblog, I'll continue until Linda jumps in and changes the direction. One of the most valuable skills an analyst can develop and build upon is decision making. Not making snap decisions based on gut feeling, but doing it the right way. The foundation for decision making is in Decision Analysis for the Professional.This book is an excellent intermediate-level text on decision analysis that deals with both uncertainty and risk. It uses realistic examples that working professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate.

It's written as a tutorial that uses two tools, Sensitivity, which is used with the chapters dealing with decisions under uncertainty, and Supertree for developing decision trees related to risk analysis. Instructions on obtaining the student versions of these programs are included in the book. Note that the student version of Supertree accommodates trees with up to 250 endpoints, and the student version of Sensitivity performs sensitivity for up to 12 variables.

My most used text on decision analysis is Making Hard Decisions by Robert T. Clemen. Where that book is more comprehensive, it's also less suitable for the working professional who needs a refresher and a desk reference. Therein lies the main value of this book - it's more aligned to real world problems that you'll find in the workplace and is written to be both a tutorial and a reference.